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Try Stocky free →Cautious. Oshkosh trades at a reasonable 11.3× forward P/E, but the NGDV contract—its crown jewel—carries structural headwinds: deferred costs exceed estimated future profits by ~$135M over the 10-year delivery cycle, creating margin pressure. DoD exposure (20% of sales) adds concentration risk. Leadership alignment at 60/100 reflects founder-CEO continuity, but insufficient to offset the contract's profitability drag.
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Stocky rates OSK (OSK) at 42/100 — below the bar Stocky looks for. The score fuses business quality, moat width, leadership alignment, valuation and analyst signal into a single number. Cautious. Oshkosh trades at a reasonable 11.3× forward P/E, but the NGDV contract—its crown jewel—carries structural headwinds: deferred costs exceed estimated future profits by ~$135M over the 10-year delivery cycle, creating margin pressu
OSK's current Stocky Verdict is 42/100, placing it in the "Cautious" band. This composite combines a 50/100 Compounder score, 60/100 Leadership, Moat rating, and analyst signal.
Stocky hasn't finalised a Moat Score for OSK yet — the analysis draws from ROIC trends, pricing power evidence, and competitive-position filings.
OSK scores 60/100 on Leadership Alignment. Higher = more founder involvement, higher insider ownership, sensible pay, and evidence of long-term capital allocation discipline.
OSK's Vulnerability Profile scores 33/100 (higher = more resilient). The profile flags customer concentration, supply chain, refinancing walls and regulatory risks specific to OSK.
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